PET Bottle Chips in the Global Supply Chain Restructuring
——Charles Guo, Lead analyst of CCFGroup
His report mainly covers 5 parts:
1. Overview of polyester: Global and China. Mr. Guo provided a comprehensive analysis of the global polyester capacity distribution, the ratio of non-fiber applications in polyester products, major product imports and exports, trade flows related to leading polyester companies and their upstream and downstream support, as well as factors affecting the concentration of capacity deployment. He pointed out that China's share in global polyester capacity is increasingly high, exceeding 60%, but the proportion of non-fiber capacity in China remains far lower than in overseas markets, indicating room for growth. The expansion of bottle chip export share is a future trend, with the global share possibly surpassing 50% in 2024.
2. The status of China's PET bottle chip on the global stage is rising. Mr. Guo reviewed the distribution and growth of global PET bottle chip capacity and demand, as well as the situation of global suppliers and investment by domestic and foreign companies. He mentioned that China's share among the top 10 global suppliers exceeds 60% and highlighted the back-and-forth progress of overseas and domestic investments.
3. PET bottle chips: The capacity expansion cycle is entering its final phase. Mr. Guo discussed recent expansion situations in domestic market, market shares, and downstream demand. He believes that the capacity expansion of PET bottle chip is gradually entering its final phase, and market share redistribution will also enter a new stage. Currently, while demand for bottle chips is still growing, the increase in supply is more significant, which may lead to an excess of one million tons PET, with an estimated additional consumption of 23-24 days needed.
4. Under the pressure of competition, exports demonstrate advantages. Mr. Guo compared the processing spread of domestic and foreign markets, suggesting that the profitability of foreign markets has long been higher than that of the domestic market, leading to an increase in export efforts. The footprint of bottle chip exports has spread to over 130 countries and regions, and trade flows are becoming increasingly complex; however, this also faces challenges from certain trade barriers.
5. Market outlook. Mr. Guo analyzed the situation from three aspects: crude oil, polyester raw materials, and PET bottle chip, predicting a weaker cost expectation in the future and emphasizing the need to pay attention to the consistency of shipments and exports of bottle chips.
