Integrating futures and spot markets in polyester-a dual exploration of theory and practice
——Zhejiang Future Petrochemical Co., Ltd.
The report is divided into four main sections:
1. Market Review: Ms. Yan analyzed the MEG spot price market, highlighting key basis spreads during different periods and the factors driving these fluctuations.
2. Supply and Demand Structure: Ms. Yan examined the supply-demand dynamics through MEG and polyester production capacities, import/export trends, operating rates, and polyester inventory levels. The analysis shows a trend of declining MEG import dependence. Overall, the 2024 MEG supply-demand balance has improved, with higher operating rates for domestic production and stronger profitability.
3. Market Outlook: Ms. Yan summarized the MEG port inventory, basis spread, and new production capacity. She anticipates a slower growth rate in MEG capacity in 2025, with expanding profit margins and a shift to a higher profit range. Attention is needed on the impact of post-U.S. election tariff policies on MEG imports and textile exports.
4. Futures-Spot Integration Serving the Industry: Ms. Yan reviewed spot trading volumes and explained futures-spot integration services and arbitrage opportunities. Industry participants learned about the definition, process, advantages, and risks of term-spot pricing, with Ms. Yan noting that capturing arbitrage opportunities can mitigate unilateral price volatility and support a win-win outcome for the industry.
