Future of the Constantly Evolving Aromatics Market
——Shen Lin, Deputy Manager of Aromatics Department, Sinopec Chemical Sales East China
The report mainly revolves around the following three parts:
1. Outlook for the future of crude oil and refined oil. Mr. Shen Lin elaborated on the performance of aromatic products and the volatility of the crude oil market this year, and gave future crude oil supply expectations. Mr. Shen Lin also mentioned that due to the fading of demand rebound after the pandemic, weak macroeconomic driving force, and the accelerated application of clean energy technology, the growth of crude oil demand will gradually slow down in the future. The development of new energy vehicles has dragged down gasoline demand, and the increase in future demand will mainly come from the incremental consumption of aviation fuel and petrochemical raw materials.
2. Supply and demand of various aromatic products. Mr. Shen Lin said that with the decline in refined oil consumption and the promotion of green environmental protection such as national energy conservation and carbon reduction, refining and chemical companies are moving towards "reducing oil and increasing chemicals". It is expected that by 2025, the capacity of toluene and xylene will continue to expand, but the growth rate of capacity is slowing down. Due to the announcement of the new policy on the collection of refined oil consumption tax, China's oil demand has declined, and the export volume of toluene and xylene has continued to increase. Benzene has good economic performance, and both capacity and demand will increase rapidly.
3. Market demand. Mr. Shen Lin analyzed the Fed's interest rate cut path and China's loose policy, and mentioned that as inflation pressure gradually eases, the job market has also gradually cooled down, and the central bank needs to gradually withdraw from the high-interest market environment to gradually return to the normalization of monetary policy. With the improvement of functionality, cost-effectiveness, etc., and the intensification of the competitive advantages of China's industrial chain, the consumption growth of nylon and polyester has performed well, and it is expected that there will still be certain support for benzene, PX, etc. Mr. Shen Lin reminded to pay attention to the overseas inventory replenishment cycle and the restoration of consumer confidence.
