Has the Global Oil and Gas Supercycle Ended?
——Yan Jiantao, Executive Director and Chief Economist of Fidelity Energy
The report is divided into four main sections:
Part 1: Crude oil price forecast. Mr. Yan combined the forecasts of hundreds of institutions on oil prices for the whole year and reviewed the oil price situation in recent years, proposing that this round of the oil and gas commodity super cycle is nearing its end.
Part 2: Factors affecting oil prices. Mr. Yan discussed the influences on oil prices from multiple factors, including seasonality, production costs, energy competition, market structure and sentiment, international geopolitical risks, supply and demand patterns, the production capacity of the United States and OPEC, import sources, implied oil prices of refined oil products, and inventories.
Part 3: The last golden age of refining, the bottom of the big chemical cycle, and the fading golden age of infrastructure investment. Mr. Yan proposed that there is a high correlation between refining capacity utilization and refining margins. Under the carbon neutrality scenario, overall oil demand declines, and the proportion of chemical oil consumption increases significantly. Moreover, the cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures in the petroleum industry are taking effect. The significant improvement in oil service efficiency, modular construction, the development of giant low-cost resources, and the shortening of project development cycles. These changes in the oil and gas industry itself also greatly reduce the demand for investment. It can be seen from the slowing trend of the global infrastructure construction index that there are fewer new infrastructure projects and an increase in existing maintenance projects.
Part 4: Global economic and population growth. Mr. Yan believes that there is a high correlation between copper prices and oil prices, and the trend of China's stock market is similar to that of copper prices. And the growth rate of the world's GDP also has a positive relationship with oil prices, and the GDP growth rate is also linked to the newly-born population.
In the end, Mr. Yan advocates that the public accept deglobalization and manage market fluctuations.
